Rising food prices can lead to stunted growth in children

When food prices spike during an economic crisis, urban populations and people with low levels of education are mostly affected. This can have lifelong negative health consequences – such as stunted growth in children. A research team at the University of Bonn has now demonstrated such long-term effects using the example of the “Asian financial crisis” in the 1990s. At the time, turmoil in financial markets led to a drastic increase in the price of rice, Indonesia’s most important staple food, which left measurable impacts on children’s development. The study was published in the journal Global Food Security.

For their study, researchers from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn evaluated the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), which has been tracking households for many years. They used regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 and linked them to people’s body measurements during childhood and later as young adults.

We see that a huge price shock not only has a short-term impact, but can also affect children’s long-term physical development. Crisis-induced price increases increased chronic malnutrition and were associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. “Severely affected children will not only remain shorter than their unaffected peers later in life, but will also be significantly more prone to obesity.”

Elza S. Elmira, lead author of the study

This correlation surprised the researchers. Elmira sees one possible explanation: “In times of crisis, families save fewer calories than they would on more expensive, nutrient-dense foods. This results in a ‘hidden deficiency’ of important micronutrients, which slows height growth without necessarily reducing body weight to the same extent.” The study followed the same children until 2014, when they were between 17 and 23 years old. For the group who were between three and five years old at the time of crisis, there were significant associations with body mass index (BMI) and the likelihood of obesity.

Protection of children in sensitive developmental stages

“Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects – developmental disorders are easier to measure, but are often accompanied by impaired mental development and an increased risk of obesity and chronic disease,” says Professor Dr. Matin Qaim, co-author of the study. “In the same crisis, undernutrition and obesity can both increase. This highlights the importance of policy for nutrition-sensitive crises: it must protect especially children at sensitive stages of development. If food policy is only about calories, it can miss the real problem.” The agricultural economist is a member of the Interdisciplinary Research Area “Sustainable Futures” at the University of Bonn and the Cluster of Excellence “PhenoRob – Robotics and Phenotyping for Sustainable Crop Production”.

Stronger effect in cities and people with lower education

The effects are particularly pronounced in urban areas, where households are more dependent on the food market, while families in rural areas sometimes grow their own rice. Educational background also plays a role: children of low-educated mothers are significantly more affected than children of better-educated mothers. “The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty lines,” Elmira and Kaim emphasize. “Especially in cities and places with low knowledge about balanced diets, a price shock can worsen diet quality, so that the consequences are long-term and irreversible.”

Because this is relevant today

The Bonn researchers point out that harvest, income and price shocks are increasing globally – due to conflicts, pandemics and extreme weather events. The analysis from Indonesia thus provides empirical evidence on how economic turmoil can translate into long-term health risks through food prices.

Results in this study are interpreted as statistical correlations. over long periods of time, all potentially confounding influences cannot be ruled out with certainty.