Voters in three states – Arizona, Missouri and Nevada – chose on Tuesday to advance protections for abortion rights in their state constitutions. Donald Trump, meanwhile, is likely to win all three states in his victorious bid for the White House.
It’s a conundrum for Democrats, who expected abortion rights ballot initiatives in those states to boost the prospects of their candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris. But data from VoteCast, a major survey of American voters conducted by the Associated Press and partners including KFF, found that about 3 in 10 voters in Arizona, Missouri and Nevada who supported civil rights measures abortionists also voted for Trump.
“We saw a lot of people who voted for abortion access and still voted for Donald Trump,” said Liz Hamel, director of Public Opinion and Survey Research for KFF, a nonprofit health information organization that includes KFF Health News.
VoteCast is a survey of more than 115,000 registered voters in all 50 states conducted between October 28 and November 5. It’s meant to be “the most accurate possible picture of who voted and why,” according to the AP.
About 1 in 4 of voters polled said abortion was the “single most important” factor in their vote, though that number was higher among Democrats, young women, black adults and Hispanic adults.
Referendums on abortion rights passed Tuesday in seven states, including Missouri and Arizona, where state bans were overturned. Vice President Kamala Harris has made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, but the VoteCast results reinforce previous surveys that showed economic concerns were the main issue in the election.
Tuesday was the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court’s conservative majority was overturned Roe v. Wade. During Trump’s first term as president, he nominated three Supreme Court justices who later joined the 2022 ruling that eliminated women’s constitutional right to abortion care.
Mike Islami, 20, voted for Trump in Madison, Wisconsin, where he is a full-time student. He said abortion is “a woman’s right” which “was definitely in the back of my mind” when he cast his vote.
“I don’t think much will change” about abortion access during Trump’s second term, he said. “I think his policy is that he’s just going to send it back to the states and from there they could decide how important it was.”
The survey found that the percentage of voters who said abortion was the most important factor in their vote was similar in states with abortion measures on the ballot and in states without them.
When voters cast their ballots, they were most motivated by financial stress and the cost of filling their gas tanks, housing and food, according to survey results. Trump won those voters both in hotly contested states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and in reliably red states.
Glen Bolger, a Republican campaign strategist, said the results of the 2022 election showed that Republican candidates are better at talking about the economy and the cost of living than abortion.
This year, Trump voters who supported abortion rights amendments may have decided to take Trump “at his word that he wasn’t going to support a national ban,” Bolger said. In voting for Trump, he said, those supporters may have thought, “Let’s elect him to deal with the cost of living and health care and gas and everything else.”
The VoteCast survey found stronger support for abortion ballot initiatives among female voters: 72% of women in Nevada, 69% in Arizona, 62% in Missouri.
Erica Wallace, 39, of Miami, voted for Harris and a Florida abortion rights ballot measure that fell just short of the 60 percent threshold needed to amend the state constitution.
“As a grown woman, you’re out there working, living your life,” said Wallace, an executive secretary who lives in Miami. She said the state’s ban, which criminalizes abortion care before many women know they are pregnant, amounts to unequal treatment for women.
“I pay my taxes. I live well,” he said. “I do what every other citizen does.”
Men were more likely to vote against protecting abortion rights. Men voted 67% in Nevada, 64% in Arizona and 55% in Missouri in favor of abortion rights initiatives.
The VoteCast survey found that, overall, voters believed Harris was better placed to handle health care. That’s consistent with the long-standing view that “Democrats have traditionally had the edge on health care,” Hammel said. But Trump edged out Harris among more than half of voters who said they were very concerned about health care costs.
Family premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance rose 7% in 2024 to an average of $25,572 annually, according to KFF’s 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey. On average, workers contribute $6,296 per year to the cost of family coverage.
“Everyone is affected by the high cost of health care, and no one has a solution to it,” Bolger said. “This is something voters are very frustrated about.”
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This article was reprinted by khn.orga national newsroom that produces in-depth health journalism and is one of the core operating programs at KFF – the independent source for health policy research, polling and journalism.
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