Gaza’s life expectancy has been halved amid ongoing conflict

Life expectancy in the Gaza Strip has almost halved (-46.3%) since the start of the current war in October 2023, according to new estimates published in The Lancet. The study led by Michel Guillot, professor of sociology in the School of Arts & Sciences, and a team of international collaborators found that life expectancy fell from a pre-war average of 75.5 years to 40.5 years for the period between October 2023 and September 2024. The decline in life expectancy was higher for men (-51.6%; 73.6 years before war to 35.6 years) than for women (-38.6%; 77.4 years pre-war to 47.5 years).

The authors calculated three life expectancy scenarios:

• The central scenario based on the official death toll from the Gaza Health Ministry, excluding the estimated number of people reported missing or under the rubble, estimates life expectancy between Oct. 2023 and Sept. 2024 in 40.5 years

• The low-scenario based on deaths for which complete identifying information was available—estimates life expectancy between Oct. 2023 and Sept. 2024 in 44.4 years

  
  
  

• The high scenario based on the official death toll from the Gaza Health Ministry, including the lower bound of the estimated number of people reported missing or under the rubble, estimates life expectancy between Oct. 2023 and Sept. 2024 is 36.1 years

The authors caution that the central scenario estimate of life expectancy of 40.5 years includes deaths for people whose identification data was incomplete and whose existence could not be cross-referenced with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for the Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). register. As the estimate does not include people reported missing or under the rubble, it may still be an underestimate. In addition, the authors stress that none of the scenarios include the indirect effects of war—such as lack of access to health care and malnutrition—on mortality.

Michel Guillot is a professor in the Department of Sociology and research associate in the Center for the Study of Population in the School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania.